Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest, which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem, and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct we also obtain multivariate confidence corridors for the regression function in the classical mean regression. To deal with the problem of slowly decreasing error in coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence corridors, which results in meager coverage for small sample sizes, a simple bootstrap procedure is designed based on the leading term of the Bahadur representation. The finite-sample properties of both procedures are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is demonstrated that the bootstrap procedure considerably outperforms the asymptotic bands in terms of coverage accuracy. Finally, the bootstrap confidence corridors are used to study the efficacy of the National Supported Work Demonstration, which is a randomized employment enhancement program launched in the 1970s. This article has supplementary materials online.     

A new confidence interval in errors-in-variables model with known error variance

This paper considers constructing a new confidence interval for the slope parameter in the structural errors-in-variables model with known error variance associated with the regressors. Existing confidence intervals are so severely affected by Gleser–Hwang effect that they are subject to have poor empirical coverage probabilities and unsatisfactory lengths. Moreover, these problems get worse with decreasing reliability ratio which also result in more frequent absence of some existing intervals. To ease these issues, this paper presents a fiducial generalized confidence interval which maintains the correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results show that this fiducial interval is slightly conservative while often having average length comparable or shorter than the other methods. Finally, we illustrate these confidence intervals with two real data examples, and in the second example some existing intervals do not exist.     

基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性，电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度，成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性，同时投资回收期较长，难以吸引到传统融资，而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规，众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重，由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模，刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应，基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明，众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响，使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下，使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。     

Double robust estimator in general treatment regimes based on Covariate-balancing

Double robust estimators have double the chance of being a consistent estimator of a causal effect in binary treatments cases. In this paper, we proposed an estimator of a causal effect for general treatment regimes based on covariate-balancing. Under parametrical situation, our estimator has double robustness.     

From the Digital Divide to the Connectivity Dividend Difference: A Connectivity Capital Perspective*

The access divide was once the basic form of the digital divide. The development of Internet infrastructure has narrowed the access divide and increased application coverage, but it has also touched off a connectivity dividend difference. Taking the online market as an example, we examine the sources of the dividend difference and the factors influencing it with in a connectivity framework. We found that the narrowing of the access divide has resulted in enhanced connectivity and platform development, giving people the chance to benefit from transforming the various assets in which they have previously invested into differentiated compound connectivity capital. In the course, the scale and rate of the conversion are affected by two multiplier effects and especially by online platforms. The process is ultimately expressed in the dividend difference.     

Education,cognitive ability,and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.     

Beyond interviewer effects in the standardized measurement of ego-centric networks

The effects which interviewers exert on the collection of ego-centric networks have recently come into the focus of methodological considerations. Studies consistently show that the size of networks varies depending on the interviewer. We would like to expand on this research strand by pointing to different aspects which have so far gone unremarked in the discussion. First, size is mainly analysed as a network measure which is influenced during data collection, while other common measures such as network density or composition have not received sufficient consideration. Second, large-scale surveys using face-to-face interviews usually allocate interviewers to a single sampling point. Differences between sampling points (locality effects) are attributed to interviewer effects. Hence, we disentangle the effects of the locality and interviewer. Third, the discussion on interviewer effects often follows an “actor-oriented” consideration of how data collection situations are structured by interviewers. Expanding this approach from a relational perspective, we consider the relationship between the interviewers and respondents and whether this relationship influences the collection of network data. To test our hypotheses about the influence of interviewers, the locality and the interviewer-respondent relationship on different network measures, we use data from the 2010 German General Social Survey (n = 2827 respondents, n = 220 interviewers). The multilevel analyses show that the relationship between the interviewer and the respondent is not very relevant. Furthermore, the analyses show that interviewers have an influence on the network size but not on measures of their composition. However, evidence on the prevalence of locality or interviewer effects is mixed. Finally, homophilous interviewer-respondent relationships have very little effect on network characteristics. We find evidence of training and fatigue effects on network size. However, much of the variation in network size caused by the interviewer still remains unexplained. We draw conclusions on how to organize interview situations in surveys.     

社会保障、代际支持如何影响城镇老年人退而不休?

对城镇老年人退而不休的动因分析,是合理开发和管理老年人力资源的前提.基于代际支持的传导作用,研究发现,具有较高社会保障水平、健康状况较好和学历较高的城镇老年人选择退而不休更倾向于实现自我价值,同时,足够的家庭养老支持对他们积极发挥余热的动机有正向推动作用;而健康状况较差和学历较低的城镇老年人,由于家庭养老支持不足、其付出与获得的家庭资源不对等以及由此产生的社会保障"外溢"等压力,更可能以获得收入为动机选择退而不休,进而导致其发展权利受损.因此,有差别地开发和管理老年人力资源、谨慎制定并实施延迟退休政策,对实现积极、健康的老龄化社会有着重要的意义.     

Effects of the social dominance orientation on environmental attitudes of Chilean university students / Efectos de la orientación a la dominancia social sobre las actitudes ambientales de universitarios chilenos

By adopting a multidimensional approach to environmental attitudes (apathy, anthropocentrism, connectedness and emotional affinity with nature), this study explores the relationships between these dimensions, social dominance orientation (SDO) and political orientation. Two hundred and sixty-two Chilean university students filled out an ad hoc online questionnaire. Two confirmatory factorial analyses showed the four typologies of environmental attitudes and the two factors for SDO, which are labelled group dominance and opposition to equality. Through hierarchical regressions, group dominance showed higher explanatory power of environmental attitudes than political orientation. Furthermore, using the bootstrap procedure we showed that group dominance mediated between political orientation and attitudes of apathy, anthropocentrism and connectedness, while opposition to equality mediated between apathy and emotional affinity. We conclude that SDO is an important variable for measuring political ideology while also providing new nuances when analysing the relationships with environmental attitudes.